For those of you pronosticators who want to get in on the ground floor of the Psychic Terror Network (a.k.a. the Policy Analysis Market), here’s the home of dot-com Homeland Security. Its homepage is appropriately reminiscent of the Heaven’s Gate Cult website, another modern pseudo-religion (their story here).
The Policy Analysis Market is cosponored by DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects, and a spin-off of The economist magazine, confirming my suspicion that this is the cult of the capitalists at work. It’s Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations here: there’s a “guiding hand” to completely unfettered markets that allows them to meet people’s needs better than individual intelligence ever could. Forget the CIA, we’ll use internet surfers! They’ll want to make money and they can do our intelligence gathering for us better than those desk jockeys in Langley! This Psychic Terror Stock exchange is the perfect marriage of Nineties dot-com can-do, eighties market-uber-alles and Seventeen-Seventies God-guides-the-rich Calvinism.
Trader accounts open in two days so get ready to join the Pyschic Terror Network yourself!
UPDATe: We’re too late. Pentagon canceling Pyschic Terror Network under the weight of ridicule they’ve received to the idea. Maybe the Pentagon should hire Nancy Reagan’s astrologer for their terror alerts instead (actually they should hire her great webmaster, whose great design sure beats that of the Heaven’s Gate dropout they used).
Quaker Ranter
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Betting on Terror
July 29, 2003
The news sites are all reporting a Pentagon plan to bet on future terrorist activity (BBC). It’s reported as a stock market-style system in which sucessful predictions by investors would win them money.
Someone at the Pentagon has read a little too many books about the infinite wisdom of the free market. There are those who have a religious faith in the power of unfettered capitalism, who posit it as a kind of all-knowing, self-correcting God. With the input of enough self-interested actors, the truth can be discerned. I’d argue that stock markets are more like blogs (the highly-linked New York Times version of the article), with everyone rushing to make the same links (Associated Press).
The truth of the matter is that recent intelligence lapses have been the result of political meddling in the collection and analytical processes. When the boss wants a certain result (proof of weapons in Iraq, proof of Al Qaeda links), then the group-think pressure to conform will warp the sifting process. A stock market-style system for predicting terror would be about as accurate as a poll of CNN and Fox News watchers – it will tell you what everyone thinks but it probably won’t tell you the truth.