Trump is back. He won cleanly and quickly this time, reportedly finally winning the popular vote. I think a lot of this is the global backlash against incumbency following the dislocations and inflation of Covid but it’s also yet another data point in the twenty-first century rise of strongmen.
The future is pretty clear. Trump has been telling us what he’ll do and there’s little reason to think he won’t do it. With Congress, the Senate, and the Supreme Court under his control and the GOP in full allegiance, there’s nothing to stop Trump from reshaping the United States in his image. Suppression of political opponents, the dismantling of the regulatory state, and a pullback from international security agreements will all be immediate actions. Ukraine is screwed. The Middle East is likely to get even worse, as if that’s possible. The January 6 insurrectionists will be pardoned and emboldened to focus their attention on whoever they deem to be domestic traitors. Limits on the police or military will be lifted. We’re going to get our own Russia-like class of unregulated oligarchs, with Musk first in line. There’s likely to be some surprises — members of Trump’s whispering class sometimes have different goals and he himself not systematic enough to always follow through on his stated logic. But the big picture is clear. And the effects will be rippling for decades.
This time we know what we’ll get. Trump’s shown us over and over that he’s a crook, a liar, a misogynist, a racist, and an lover of strongmen. Voters have seen that and decided this is what they want. As things start to fall apart they’ll blame others for the collapses. It’s all as predictable as it is sad.
Dave Karpf’s “What the future looks like from here” seems pretty spot on:
What I find myself staring at is the future. What will these next few years look like? Where, pragmatically, can we go from here? And the answers are all pretty bleak.
This is, effectively, the end of the American Century. We’ll still have an important global role, because the dollar is still the worldwide reserve currency and also we have nuclear weapons and a massive military. But we’re going to abandon Ukraine and NATO. The international institutions that we built in the last century — international institutions that gave the United States a first-among-equals advantage — will all wither away.
David Hunter’s “There is hope” talks a lot about trusting ourselves and one another and settling in for the long haul.
Trust-building starts with your own self. It includes trusting your own eyes and gut, as well as building protection from the ways the crazy-making can become internalized.
This also means being trustworthy — not just with information, but with emotions. That way you can acknowledge what you know and admit the parts that are uncertain fears nagging at you.
I hope you all take care of yourselves. It’s going to be a long ride. Remember to love your neighbors no matter who they voted for. We’re all hurt, complicated people. Give grace, be the model of love you want to see in the world.
Cropwell Quakers 